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Prediction for CME (2024-10-23T12:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-23T12:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/34135/-1
CME Note: PRELIMINARY: CME seen to the north-northeast in SOHO LASCO and northeast in STEREO A COR2 that appears to be associated with a minor eruption with northward deflection occurring near N19E15 south of Active Region 3864 as seen in SDO AIA 171/193 and GOES SUVI 284. Flickering magnetic field lines are observed off the northeast limb nearly simultaneously after the on-disk signature seen in SDO 171 which may suggest, with low confidence, a possible simultaneous far-side component. Triangulation of the CME using SOHO/STEREO A coronagraphs suggested with higher confidence that the CME was predominantly associated with the on-disk signatures. This CME possibly arrived on 2024-10-26 and further analysis is ongoing.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-26T17:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 23/2003 UT
Radial velocity (km/s): 464 km/s
Longitude (deg): E08
Latitude (deg): N35
Half-angular width (deg): 25

Notes:

Lead Time: 63.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2024-10-24T02:00Z

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